Maajo 27, 2025, Guddiga Sharciyeynta Securities ee Shiinaha ayaa si rasmi ah u ansixiyay diiwaangelintaaluminium aluminiummustaqbalka iyo ikhtiyaarrada ku jira Is-weydaarsiga Mustaqbalka ee Shanghai, calaamadaynta badeecada mustaqbalka ugu horreysa adduunka ee leh aluminium dib loo warshadeeyay oo xudun u ah inay gasho suuqa kala-soocida Shiinaha. Cabbiraaddani ma aha oo kaliya inay dib u qaabaynayso habka qiimaha silsiladda warshadaha aluminium, laakiin sidoo kale waxay noqon kartaa qalab maaliyadeed oo muhiim ah si kor loogu qaado isbeddelka kaarboon-yar ee warshadaha aluminium ee caalamiga ah.
Saamaynta qoto dheer ee silsiladda warshadaha aluminium
Horumarka Halbeegga Warshadaha Aluminium ee Dib loo warshadeeyay
Maaddaama ay tahay soo-saaraha ugu weyn adduunka iyo isticmaalayaasha aluminiumka aluminiumka ah (oo leh wax soo saar 6.2 milyan oo tan ah iyo isticmaalka 6.73 milyan oo tan sanadka 2024), warshadaha aluminium ee dib loo warshadeeyay ee Shiinaha ayaa muddo dheer la kulmay barta xanuunka ee jahwareerka habka qiimeynta. Cheng Huawei, maareeyaha Xafiiska Xoghaynta ee Guangdong Hongjin New Materials Group, ayaa tilmaamay in macaamiisha hoose ay leeyihiin baahi xoog leh oo loogu talagalay amarrada xiritaanka qiimaha, laakiin sababtoo ah la'aanta noocyada mustaqbalka ee aluminium dib loo warshadeeyay, shirkaduhu waxay kaliya ku tiirsanaan karaan mustaqbalka aluminium aasaasiga ah ama u gudbinta amarada si ay u xiraan qiimaha, taasoo keentay khataraha qiimaha. Daahfurka aluminiumka aluminiumka mustaqbalka wuxuu si toos ah u buuxin doonaa farqigan, wuxuu gaari doonaa isku xirka qiimaha u dhexeeya aluminium dib loo warshadeeyay iyo aluminium aasaasiga ah, wuxuuna kor u qaadayaa habka jaangooyooyinka warshadaha.
Hal-abuurka Qalabka Maareynta Khatarta
Liistada mustaqbalka iyo agabka ikhtiyaariga ah ayaa siinaya hab cusub shirkadaha silsiladaha aluminium ee warshadaha si ay u xakameeyaan isbedbedelka qiimaha. Qaadashada shirkadaha aluminiumka ee dib loo warshadeeyey tusaale ahaan, saamiga aluminiumka qashinka ah ee kharashka alaabta ceeriin ayaa ka badan 70%, iyo kala duwanaanta kala duwanaanta qiimaha aluminiumka qashinka ah ayaa had iyo jeer ka sarreeya kan aluminiumka elektaroonigga ah. Iyadoo loo marayo suuqa mustaqbalka, shirkaduhu waxay gaari karaan:
Xayndaab: Quful kharashka wax soo iibsiga alaabta ceeriin iyo qiimaha iibka alaabta si looga fogaado khatarta isbedbeddelka qiimaha biraha.
Maareynta alaabada: Isticmaalka rasiidhada bakhaarka mustaqbalka si loo yareeyo cadaadiska alaabada xilli ka baxsan oo loo balaadhiyo kanaalada iibka.
Hal-abuurka maalgelinta: Isticmaalka rasiidhada bakhaarka mustaqbalka dammaanad ahaan si aad u hesho maalgelin qiimo jaban oo kor loogu qaado silsiladda raasamaalka.
Dardar gelinta kaarboonka hooseeya
Ku shubista aluminium aluminium inta badan waxay u isticmaashaa aluminiumka qashinka ah sida alaabta ceeriin, iyo soo saarista 1 tan oo aluminium dib loo warshadeeyay waxay yarayn kartaa qiiqa kaarboonka in ka badan 95%, taas oo ah dariiqa udub dhexaadka u ah isbeddelka kaarboon-yar ee warshadaha aluminium ee caalamiga ah. Wang Jian, Madaxweyne ku xigeenka Shiinaha Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, carabka ku adkeeyay in qalabka mustaqbalka hagi doonaa caasimadda si ay u ururiyaan in industry ee aluminium cagaaran, iyo dardar-isbeddelka yar-carbon warshadaha ee iyada oo habka gudbinta ee "qiimaha signal qoondaynta khayraadka hagaajinta warshadaha".
Dib u dhiska Habka Suuqa Mustaqbalka
1. La dagaallama awoodda qiimaha
Wang Rong, oo ah kaaliyaha agaasimaha Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, ayaa saadaaliyay in liiska aluminium aluminium mustaqbalka ay caqabad ku noqon doonto qiimaha caalamiga ah ee Sarrifka Birta London (LME) ee qiimaha aluminium.
Sababtu waa:
Wax soo saarka aluminium ee Shiinaha ee dib loo warshadeeyay ayaa 57% ka ah wadarta guud ee adduunka, badeecadaha mustaqbalkana waxay si toos ah uga tarjumayaan baahida suuqa Aasiya.
Hal-abuurnimada naqshadeynta badeecada gaarsiinta: Nidaamka gaarsiinta laba-geesoodka ah ee la soo jeediyay ee “aluminium dib loo warshadeeyey + baararka aluminiumka aluminium” ee muddadii hore waxay aad ugu habboon tahay baahiyaha dhabta ah ee shirkadaha wax-soo-saarka Aasiya.
Taageerada qaybsiga siyaasadda: Marka la eego himilooyinka Shiinaha ee "dual carbon", alaabta aluminium cagaaran waxay ku raaxaysan doonaan dhiirigelinta canshuurta, kor u qaadida awoodda qiimaha mustaqbalka.
2. Isbeddelka qaabdhismeedka ka qaybgalayaasha
Waxaa la filayaa in suuqa mustaqbalka uu soo bandhigi doono saddex kooxood oo waaweyn oo ka qaybqaata:
Shirkadaha silsiladaha warshadaha: kuwa wax soo saara aluminium, shirkado farsameeya aluminium dib loo warshadeeyay, soosaarayaasha qaybaha baabuurta, iwm, oo leh saamiga la filayo in ka badan 60%.
Hay'adaha Maalgashiga: Maalgelinta CTA, maalgelinta xayndaabka badeecada, ka faa'iidaysiga isbedbeddelka qiimaha si loo soo celiyo.
Ganacsatada xudduudaha: Iyada oo la caalamiyeynayo suuqa mustaqbalka ee Shiinaha, shirkadaha Koonfur-bari Aasiya, Bariga Dhexe, iyo gobollada kale ee cuna aluminium dib loo warshadeeyay waxay ka qaybqaadan doonaan garqaadista.
Shaqada daahfurka qiimaha oo la xoojiyey
Suuqa booska ee hadda jiraaluminium aluminiumma laha qiimo midaysan, iyadoo kala duwanaanshaha qiimaha gobolku uu inta badan gaadho 500 yuan/ton. Ka dib marka suuqa mustaqbalka la xuso, hufnaanta qiimaha ayaa si weyn loo horumarin doonaa iyada oo loo marayo hababka qandaraasyada iyo gudbinta dhexe. Iyada oo ku saleysan khibradda liiska mustaqbalka ee dib-u-cusbooneysiinta, waxaa la filayaa in qiimaha mustaqbalka ay noqdaan bartilmaameedka qiimeynta in ka badan 80% ganacsiga aluminium ee dalka ee dib loo warshadeeyey 3 sano gudahood.
Muhiimadda istaraatiijiga ah iyo aragtida warshadaha
Qaab cusub oo loogu adeegayo dhaqaalaha dhabta ah
Sida lagu sheegay arrintii hore, mustaqbalka aluminiumka aluminium ee aasaaska ah ayaa u hoggaansami doona meelaynta "u adeegista horumarinta cagaaran" waxayna ku qasbeysaa cusboonaysiinta warshadaha iyada oo la dejinayo heerar adag oo tayo leh oo loogu talagalay alaabada gaarsiinta (sida waxyaabaha wasakhaysan iyo guryaha farsamada). Tani waxay ku nuuxnuuxsanaysaa shuruudaha cagta kaarboonka ee cashuurta xudduudaha kaarboon ee Midowga Yurub (CBAM) ee alaabada aluminiumka laga keeno, ka caawinta warshadaha aluminium ee Shiinaha inay kor u qaadaan tartankooda caalamiga ah.
Dib u qaabaynta muuqaalka Suuqa Aluminium ee Caalamiga ah
Kor u kaca warshadaha aluminium ee dib loo warshadeeyay ee Shiinaha ayaa dib u qoraya sahayda aluminiumka iyo khariidadda dalabka. 2024, saamiga wax soo saarka aluminium ee dib loo warshadeeyay ee Shiinaha ilaa aluminium aasaasiga ah wuxuu gaadhay 22%, halka celceliska caalamiga ahi uu yahay 15% kaliya. Hagaajinta aaladaha mustaqbalka ayaa dardar gelin doona geeddi-socodkan, waxaana la filayaa in 2030, saamiga wax soo saarka aluminium ee dib loo warshadeeyay ee Shiinaha uu dhaafi doono 35%, taasoo sii adkeynaysa booska sare ee suuqa aluminium kaarboon ee dibedda.
Muujinta Hal-abuurka Kala-soocida
Daahfurka aluminiumka aluminiumka mustaqbalka waxa uu bixiyay qaab ganacsi mustaqbalka ee noocyada kale ee birta dib loo warshadeeyay, sida naxaasta iyo zinc dib loo warshadeeyay. Caqliga xudunta u ah waa in lagu daro khayraadka "macdanta magaalooyinka" nidaamka qiimaha badeecadaha iyo kor u qaadida horumarinta dhaqaalaha wareegtada iyada oo loo marayo hal-abuurnimo maaliyadeed.
Guud ahaan, liiska aluminium aluminium mustaqbalka iyo fursadaha ma aha oo kaliya guul cusub ee suuqa kala duwan ee Shiinaha si ay ugu adeegaan dhaqaalaha dhabta ah, laakiin sidoo kale kaabayaasha dhaqaale ee muhiimka ah ee isbeddelka-carbon-yar ee warshadaha aluminium caalami ah. Iyada oo la dhisayo shabakada bakhaarka gaarsiinta iyo hagaajinta hababka isdhaafsiga xudduudaha, kala duwanaantan ayaa la filayaa inay noqoto xarunta ugu saameynta badan ee qiimaha birta aan birta ahayn ee aagga waqtiga Aasiya, dib u habeynta macquulka qaybinta qiimaha silsiladda aluminium ee caalamiga ah.
Waqtiga boostada: Meey-29-2025