Ⅰ Dhamaadka wax soo saarka: "Isbarbardhigga ballaarinta" ee aluminium iyo aluminium elektrolytic ah
1. Alumina: Dhibaatada Maxbuuska ee Kobaca Sarreya iyo Xisaabinta Sare
Marka loo eego xogta laga soo xigtay Xafiiska Tirakoobka Qaranka, wax soo saarka aluminium ee Shiinaha ayaa gaadhay 7.475 milyan tan bishii Maarso 2025 (+ 10.3% sanad-sannadka), iyada oo wax-soo-saarka guud ee 22.596 milyan oo tan rubuci hore (+ 12.0% sanad-ka-sannadka). In kasta oo uu si joogto ah u balaadhiyey wax-soo-saarka, haddana suuqu waxa uu ku dhacay meerto xun oo ah “kordhinta wax-soo-saarka iyada oo aan la kordhin dakhliga”
Bixinta xad dhaafka ah ayaa sii xoojisa:Qalabka bulsheed ee alumina ee gudaha ayaa ka sarreeyay 3.958 milyan oo tan, oo ay weheliso cadaadis ka yimid furitaanka daaqada soo dejinta (qiimaha FOB Australiya ayaa hoos u dhacay $ 373 / ton), iyo qiimaha dhibcaha ayaa hoos uga dhacay khadka kharashka lacagta caddaanka ah ee gobolka Shanxi (3250 yuan / ton).
Cadaadiska qiimaha si loo yareeyo wax soo saarka:Dhirta alumina ee Henan, Guizhou iyo gobollada kale waxay bilaabeen dayactirka sababtoo ah khasaaraha socodka lacagta caddaanka ah, taasoo keentay in 2.85% bishiiba hoos u dhac ku yimaado awoodda hawlgalka ilaa 88.6 milyan tan sannadkii bishii Maarso. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, sii deynta 1 milyan oo tan oo awood wax soo saar cusub ah ee Indonesia ayaa ka sii dartay awoodda adduunka oo dhan.
2. Electrolytic aluminium: "isku dheelitirnaanta adag" ee hoos yimaada saqafka awoodda wax soo saarka
Wax-soo-saarka aluminiumka elektiroonigga ah bishii Maarso wuxuu ahaa 3.746 milyan tan (+ 4.4% sannad-sannadka), iyo wax-soo-saarka isugeynta rubuci hore wuxuu ahaa 11.066 milyan tan (+ 3.2% sanad-sannadka). In kasta oo dib u soo celinta wax soo saarka gobolka koonfur-galbeed (iyadoo Yunnan Hongtai uu sii wado awoodda wax-soo-saarka buuxa ee 1.5 milyan oo tan), dabacsanaanta sahayda waxaa xaddiday siyaasadaha
Bedelka awooda ayaa ka badan:Sichuan, Guangxi iyo gobollada kale waxay dib u bilaabaan wax soo saarka inta badan iyada oo loo marayo beddelka awoodda, halka Baotou Aluminium awooddiisii hore laga saaray si loo dhimo kororka, taasoo keentay kobaca saadka saafiga ah oo xaddidan.
Xaalufinta alaabada ayaa soo dedejisa:Horraantii Abriil, alaabada bulsheed ee aluminium electrolytic waxay hoos u dhacday 744000 tan (sanad-sanad-138000 tan), iyo alaabada LME waxay sidoo kale dib ugu dhacday 459000 tan, taas oo taageertay adkeysiga qiimaha aluminium.
Ⅱ Dhanka baahida: "jeexjeexa qaab dhismeedka" ee u dhexeeya waddooyinka dhaqanka iyo kuwa soo baxaya
1. Goobta dhaqameed: Laba jeer dil ee naqshadaha iyo dhoofinta
Silsiladda hantida ma-guurtada ahi way sii yaraanaysaa:laga bilaabo Janaayo ilaa Maarso, tusaha aagga iibka ee guryaha ganacsigu wuxuu ku jiray "qabow", heerka dhismaha dhismaha dhismaha wuxuu ahaa 61% oo kaliya, iyo heerka kobaca wax soo saarka aluminium (1.3%) ayaa aad uga hooseeya heerka kobaca ee sahayda aluminiumka elektaroonigga ah.
Dhoofintu waxay wajahaysaa weerar tacriif ah:Qiimaha aluminiumka Mareykanka ee Shiinaha ayaa ka kacay 104% ilaa 145%, iyada oo aluminium dhoofinta bilaha Janaayo iyo Febraayo ay hoos u dhacday 4.5% sanadka. Shirkaduhu waxay u weecanayaan ganacsiga taraafikada Koonfur-bari Aasiya sidii gabaad nabdoon.
2. Tamar cusub iyo wax soo saar heersare ah: baahida matoorada cusub
koritaanka qarxa eealuminium aluminium:Bishii Maarso, wax-soo-saarka aluminiumka aluminiumku wuxuu gaadhay 1.655 milyan oo tan (sannadka-sanadka + 16.2%), oo ay ku riixayaan miisaanka khafiifka ah ee baabuurta tamarta cusub (la dedejiyey beddelka aluminium magnesium) iyo baahida loo yaqaan 'photovoltaic frames' (ka faa'iidaysiga siyaasadda qiimaha korontada cusub ee gudaha).
Horumarrada laga gaaray meelaynta agabka aluminium-dhamaadka sare leh: Qalabka Gaarka ah ee Dongqing ayaa si guul leh tijaabiyay soo saaray fiilooyinka alxanka magnesium sare leh, Dalabka gunta aluminiumka aluminium ee Longi Corporation ayaa kordhay 35% sannad kasta, iyo beddelka soo dejinta ee goobaha codsiga-dhamaadka sare waa la dedejiyay.
Qiimaha iyo Qiimaha: Burburka Alumina vs. Faa'iidada Balaadhinta Aluminium Electrolytic
1. Dib u dhiska qalooca qiimaha
Aluminium oxide waxay ku dhacday 'dhimasho':Qiimaha bauxite ee gudaha ayaa hoos u dhacay (hoos u dhacay 5% bishii ee gobolka Jin Yu), kharashka alaabta kaaliyaha ah sida soodhaha caustic iyo dhuxusha ayaa hoos u dhacay, iyo kharashyada miisaanka warshadaha ayaa hoos u dhacay 3158 yuan / ton, laakiin qiimaha ayaa hoos u dhacay xitaa si dhakhso ah (qiimaha dhibcaha Shanxi ayaa hoos u dhacay 3000 yuan / ton).
Balaadhinta faa'iidada faa'iidada ee aluminium electrolytic:Saamiga qiimaha alumina ayaa hoos u dhacay ilaa 40% (55% 2024), faa'iidada miisaanka leh ee warshadaha aluminium elektarooniga ah ayaa gaadhay 3700 yuan/ton, iyo faa'iidada guud ee faa'iidada tamarta tamarta Yunnan (sida Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd.) ayaa dhaaftay 25%.
2. Kala duwanaanshaha qiimaha oo kordhay
Alumina oscillation ayaa hoos u dhigaya:Saamaynta ilaha qiimaha jaban ee dibadda (Indonesia waxay ku daraysaa 6.5 milyan oo tan oo awood wax soo saar ah in la maalgeliyo) iyo sii daynta awoodda wax soo saarka cusub ee gudaha (mashruuca Guangxi ee 2 milyan oo tan ayaa gaadhay wax soo saar buuxa bishii Abriil) waxay xakamaysay booska dib u soo celinta, iyo qiyaasta hawlgalka ee la filayo rubuci labaad waa 2800-3200 yuan / ton.
Adkeysiga sare ee aluminium electrolytic:Qiimaha aluminium ee LME ayaa ah mid xasiloon oo u dhexeeya 2450-2550 US dollars / ton, iyo qandaraaska ugu weyn ee aluminium Shanghai waxaa taageera saadaasha hoose iyo filashooyinka siyaasadda (kabidda "qalabka dib u cusboonaysiinta" ee gudaha), oo leh bartilmaameed gaaban oo ah 20500 yuan / ton.
Ⅳ Ganacsiga Caalamiga ah iyo Siyaasadda: Tariff 'Wiyisha Cagaaran' iyo Isbedelka Cagaaran
1. Saamaynta silsiladda Shiinaha ee ciyaarta tacriifta ee Maraykanka
Dib u habeynta silsiladda warshadaha baabuurta:Mareykanka ayaa canshuur dhan 25% ku soo rogay baabuurta la keeno, taasoo ku qasabtay warshadda Tesla ee Mexico inay dib u dhigto wax soo saarka. Qaybta aluminiumka Shiinaha ee loo dhoofiyo Maraykanka ayaa hoos ugu dhacay 5% (shirkadaha sida Wan'an Technology waxay dardargelinayaan isbeddelkooda suuqa Yurub).
Xeeladda Wareejinta Rusal:Maaddaama xilliga EU-da ee ka-dhaafitaanka Rusal ay soo dhowdahay, Rusal wuxuu dardargelinayaa wareejintiisa bakhaarada Aasiya (Dhoofinta 154000 tan oo aluminium ah oo loo dhoofiyo Ruushka bishii Maarso), iyo liiska LME ee Rusal wuxuu kor u kacay 82%.
2. Dhexdhexaadnimada kaarboonku waxay horseedaa cusboonaysiinta warshadaha
Barnaamijka tijaabada ee shahaadaynta raadraaca kaarboonka ayaa la bilaabay:Shahaadada calaamadaynta kaarboonka Baise electrolytic aluminium waa la hirgeliyay, bartilmaameedka dib-u-warshadaynta awoodda wax-soo-saarka aluminiumka ayaa la kordhiyay ilaa 6 milyan oo tan sanadkii (iyada oo Alcoa's khidmadaha aluminium-ka-yar ee kaarboonka ah uu gaarey 15%).
Ciyaarta qiimaha korontadaQiimaha gaasta dabiiciga ah ee Yurub ayaa dib ugu soo laabtay 35 euro/saacaddii megawatt, dib u soo celinta wax soo saarka warshadda Jarmal ee Trimet Aluminum ayaa dib u dhacday. Xasiloonida tamarta tamarta gudaha ee Yunnan waxay noqotay meel halis ah oo sahayda ah.
Ⅴ Muuqaalka mustaqbalka: Ciyaarta laba-geesoodka ah ee dheeraadka ah iyo isbeddelka
1. Alumina: Dareeraha luminta horseeda, diirada saara dhimista wax soo saarka yar
Haddii qiimuhu sii socdo inuu ka hooseeyo 3000 yuan/ton, qiyaasta wax-soo-saarka ee rubuci labaad wuxuu gaari karaa 2 milyan oo tan / sannadkii, laakiin awoodda wax-soo-saarka cusub ee Indonesia ayaa laga yaabaa inay hoos u dhigto saameynta qandaraas-bixinta.
Tilmaamaha Istaraatiijiyada: Quful kharashka alaabta ceeriin ee muddada-dheer ee qiimaha sarreeya oo fiiro gaar ah u leh Shiinaha Aluminum Corporation (601600. SH), oo leh miinooyin u gaar ah.
2. Electrolytic aluminium: fursadaha qaab dhismeedka hoos yimaada alaabada hoose iyo qaybinta siyaasada
Korodhka sanadlaha ah ee baahida tamarta cusub (photovoltaic + baabuurta tamarta cusub) waa 800000 ilaa 1 milyan oo tan, taasoo ka dhigaysa hoos u dhaca beeraha dhaqameed. Xarunta qiimaha aluminiumka ayaa la filayaa inay ilaaliso 19500 ilaa 21500 yuan/ton.
Waqtiga boostada: Abriil-22-2025