Haddawarshadaha aluminiumkawaxay gashay qaab cusub oo ah "adkaysi saadka iyo adkeysiga baahida", kororka qiimahana waxaa taageeraya aasaaska adag. Morgan Stanley wuxuu saadaalinayaa in qiimaha aluminiumku uu gaari doono $3250/tan rubuca labaad ee 2026, iyadoo caqliga asaasiga ahi uu ku wareegayo faa'iidooyinka laba geesoodka ah ee farqiga saadka iyo baahida iyo deegaanka guud.
Dhinaca saadka: Ballaarinta awoodda waa xaddidan tahay, dabacsanaantu way sii yaraanaysaa
Awoodda wax soo saarka aluminiumka elektrolytic-ga ee Shiinaha ayaa gaartay heerkii ugu sarreeyay ee 45 milyan oo tan, iyadoo awoodda shaqaynta ay tahay 43.897 milyan oo tan marka la gaaro 2025 iyo heerka isticmaalka oo ah 97.55%, ku dhawaad buuxa, iyadoo lagu daray kaliya 1 milyan oo tan oo boos cusub ah.
Kobaca awoodda wax soo saarka ee dibadda waa mid daciif ah, iyadoo celcelis ahaan heerka kobaca sanadlaha ah uu yahay 1.5% oo keliya laga bilaabo 2025 ilaa 2027. Yurub waxay sii waddaa inay yareyso wax soo saarka sababtoo ah qiimaha korontada oo sarreeya, halka Waqooyiga Ameerika uu xaddidan yahay ballaarinta sababtoo ah tartanka korontada ee xarumaha xogta AI. Kaliya Indonesia iyo Bariga Dhexe ayaa leh koror yar laakiin waxaa xaddidaya kaabayaasha dhaqaalaha.
Isbeddelka cagaaran iyo kororka kharashka korontada ayaa kor u qaaday heerka warshadaha, taasoo kordhisay saamiga korontada cagaaran ee Shiinaha iyo hirgelinta canshuuraha kaarboonka ee Midowga Yurub, taasoo sii adkeyneysa booska nolosha ee awoodda wax soo saarka qiimaha sare leh.
Dhinaca baahida: Beeraha soo baxaya ayaa qarxaya, wadarta guudna si joogto ah ayay u kordheysaa
Celceliska kobaca sanadlaha ah ee baahida aluminiumka adduunka waa 2% -3%, waxaana la filayaa inuu gaaro 770-78 milyan oo tan marka la gaaro 2026. Meelaha soo ifbaxaya sida gawaarida tamarta cusub, kaydinta tamarta sawir-qaadista, iyo xarumaha xogta AI ayaa noqday awoodaha ugu muhiimsan ee wada.
Kordhinta heerka gelitaanka baabuurta cusub ee tamarta ayaa horseeday kororka isticmaalka aluminiumka halkii baabuur (in ka badan 30% ka sarreeya kan baabuurta shidaalka), kororka sanadlaha ah ee awoodda la rakibay ee photovoltaic in ka badan 20% ayaa taageeray baahida aluminiumka. Baahida ka jirta goobaha korontada iyo baakadaha ayaa si joogto ah ula socotay.
Saamiga si toos ah loogu dahaadhay aluminiumka iyo biyaha ayaa la kordhiyay ilaa in ka badan 90%, taasoo yaraynaysa sahayda aluminiumka kaydka ku jira waxayna sii xumeyneysaa xaaladda suuqa ee cidhiidhiga ah.
Calaamadaha Macro iyo suuqa: falcelinno badan oo togan
Rajada laga qabo in la dhimo heerka dulsaarka adduunka waa mid cad, iyadoo hoos u dhac ku yimid doollarka Mareykanka, qiimaha aluminiumka ee lagu qiimeeyo doollarka Mareykanka ayaa leh taageero dabiici ah oo kor u kac ah.
Baahida maalgashadayaasha ee hantida jireed ayaa sii kordheysa, biraha aan birta ahayn, oo ah ikhtiyaar loogu talagalay ka hortagga sicir bararka iyo qaybinta hantida kala duwan, ayaa soo jiidanaya qulqulka raasamaalka.
Saamiga qiimaha naxaasta/aluminiumku wuxuu ku jiraa heerka ugu sarreeya ee dhawaanahan, taasoo noqonaysa tilmaame muhiim ah oo muujinaya kororka xiga ee qiimaha aluminiumka.
Isbeddellada Mustaqbalka Warshadaha: Fursadaha Dhismaha ee Iftiiminta
Farqiga baahida saadka ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah u sii kordhaya, Morgan Stanley wuxuu saadaalinayaa in yaraanta saadka ay soo muuqan doonto laga bilaabo 2026 wixii ka dambeeya, iyadoo kaydka caalamiga ah uu yahay mid taariikh ahaan hooseeya, taasoo sii xoojinaysa dabacsanaanta qiimaha.
Kala duwanaanshaha gobolka ayaa sii xoogaysanaya, farqiga baahida saadka ee Shiinaha ayaa sii ballaaranaya sannadba sannadka ka dambeeya, ku tiirsanaanta soo dejinta ayaa sii kordheysa, taasoo samaynaysa socodka ganacsiga ee "qalabka aluminiumka dheeraadka ah ee dibadda → Shiinaha".
Faa'iidada warshaduhu waxay ku badan tahay shirkadaha hormuudka ka ah ee leh ilaha korontada cagaaran iyo faa'iidooyinka kharashka tamarta, halka awoodda wax soo saarku ay u wareegayso gobollada qiimaha jaban sida Indonesia iyo Bariga Dhexe, laakiin horumarku wuu ka gaabiyaa sidii la filayay.
Waqtiga boostada: Diseembar-19-2025