Marka loo eego xogta alaabada aluminiumka ee ay sii daayeen Isweydaarsiga Birta London (LME) iyo Isweydaarsiga Mustaqbalka ee Shanghai (SHFE), Maarso 21, alaabada aluminiumka LME waxay ku dhacday 483925 tan, taasoo ku dhufatay mid cusub tan iyo May 2024; Dhanka kale, alaabada aluminiumka ee Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) waxay hoos u dhacday 6.95% todobaadkiiba ilaa 233240 tan, taas oo muujinaysa qaab kala duwanaansho ah "dibada adag iyo dabacsan gudaha". Xogtani waxay si aad ah uga duwan tahay waxqabadka xooggan ee qiimaha aluminium ee LME ee xasilinta $ 2300 / ton iyo Shanghai aluminium qandaraasyada ugu weyn ee kor u kacaya 20800 yuan / ton isla maalintaas, taasoo ka tarjumaysa ciyaarta adag ee caalamiga ah.warshadaha aluminiumsilsilad ku hoos jirta dib u habeynta saadka iyo baahida iyo tartanka juqraafiga.
Tobanka bilood ee heerka hoose ee alaabada aluminium ee LME asal ahaan waa natiijada ka dhalatay iskahorimaadka Ruushka iyo Ukraine iyo siyaasadda dhoofinta Indonesia. Ka dib markii ay lumisay suuqgeedii Yurub sababo la xiriira cunaqabatayn, Rusal wuxuu u wareejiyay alaabtiisa Aasiya. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, mamnuucida dhoofinta bauxite ee ay hirgalisay Indonesia sanadka 2025 ayaa horseeday in la adkeeyo sahayda aluminiumka caalamiga ah, taasoo si dadban kor ugu qaadaysa qiimaha agabka aluminiumka ee LME. Xogta ayaa muujineysa in bilihii Janaayo iyo Febraayo 2025, dhoofinta bauxite ee Indonesia ay hoos u dhacday 32% sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya, halka qiimaha aluminium ee Australiya uu kordhay 18% sanadkiiba ilaa $ 3200 / ton, taas oo sii adkeynaysa faa'iidada faa'iidada dhalaaliyeyaasha dibadda. Dhanka baahida, soosaarayaasha baabuurta Yurub waxay dardar galiyeen wareejinta khadadka wax soo saarka ee Shiinaha si ay uga fogaadaan khatarta tacriifta, iyagoo wata kororka 210% sanadka-sannadka ee Shiinaha ee aluminiumka elektaroonigga ah (oo la soo dejinayo oo gaaraya 610000 tan bishii Janaayo iyo Febraayo). Tani 'dhexgelinta baahida dibadda' waxay ka dhigaysaa liiska LME tilmaame xasaasi ah oo ka tarjumaysa saadka iyo baahida caalamiga ah.
Dib u soo celinta alaabada aluminium ee Shanghai gudaha waxay si dhow ula xiriirtaa wareegga awoodda wax soo saarka iyo hagaajinta filashooyinka siyaasadda. Hoos-u-dhaca wax-soo-saarka (qiyaastii 500000 oo tan) oo ay sababtay yaraanta tamarta biyaha ee Yunnan, Sichuan iyo meelo kale ayaan si buuxda loo xaqiijin, halka awoodda wax-soo-saarka cusub ee lagu daray (600000 tan) ee meelaha jaban sida Mongolia gudaha iyo Xinjiang uu galay xilliga wax-soo-saarka. Awoodda hawlgalka aluminium ee elektrolytka gudaha ayaa kor u kacday 42 milyan oo tan, taasoo gaadhay heer sare oo taariikhi ah. Inkasta oo isticmaalka aluminiumka gudaha uu kordhay 2.3% sannadkiiba bilaha Janaayo iyo Febraayo, silsiladda hantida maguurtada ah ee daciifka ah (oo leh 10% hoos u dhac ku yimid aagga la dhammeeyey ee guryaha ganacsiga) iyo hoos u dhac ku yimid dhoofinta qalabka guriga (-8% sanadka-sannadka Janaayo iyo Febraayo) ayaa horseeday dib-u-dhac weyn oo alaab ah. Waxaa xusid mudan in heerka kobaca maalgashiga kaabayaasha gudaha ee March ay dhaaftay filashooyinka (+ 12.5% sanadka-sannadka Janaayo iyo Febraayo), iyo kaydinta hore ee mashaariicda kaabayaasha qaarkood waxay kor u qaadeen 15% bishii kor u kaca amarrada astaanta aluminium, taas oo sharraxaysa adkeysiga muddada gaaban ee dib-u-soo-celinta aluminiumka Shanghai.
Marka laga eego dhinaca qiimaha, khadka kharashka dhamaystiran ee aluminium elektrolytka gudaha ayaa weli ah mid deggan 16500 yuan / ton, oo leh qiimaha anode hore loo dubay oo ilaalinaya 4300 yuan / ton iyo qiimaha alumina wax yar hoos ugu dhacaya 2600 yuan / ton. Marka la eego kharashka korontada, shirkadaha gudaha ee Mongolia ee iskeed u leh warshad koronto waxay hoos u dhigeen qiimaha korontada iyaga oo isticmaalaya khidmadaha korantada cagaaran, iyaga oo badbaadiyay in ka badan 200 yuan halkii tan oo koronto aluminium ah. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, yaraanta tamarta biyaha ee Yunnan ayaa keentay 10% korodhka qiimaha korontada ee shirkadaha aluminium ee maxaliga ah, taas oo sii xumaynaysa kala duwanaanshaha awoodda gobolka sababtoo ah kala duwanaanshaha qiimaha.
Marka la eego sifooyin maaliyadeed, ka dib markii kaydka Fedaraalka ee heerka dulsaarka bishii Maarso uu sii daayay calaamadda dovish, index dollarka Maraykanka ayaa hoos u dhacay 104.5, isagoo siinaya taageerada qiimaha aluminium ee LME, laakiin xoojinta sarifka lacagta yuan ee Shiinaha (CFETS index ayaa kor u kacay 105.3) waxay xakamaysay suurtagalnimada aluminium Shanghai si ay u raacdo.
Farsamo ahaan, 20800 yuan/ton waa heer iska caabin muhiim u ah Aluminium Shanghai. Haddii si wax ku ool ah loo jebiyo, waxaa laga yaabaa inay saameyn ku yeelato 21000 yuan/ton; Taas bedelkeeda, haddii iibka hantida maguurtada ah uu ku guuldareysto inuu dib u soo celiyo, cadaadiska hoose ayaa si weyn u kordhin doona.
Waqtiga boostada: Mar-25-2025