Bishii Abriil 29, 2025, celceliska qiimaha A00 aluminium ee suuqa kaalinta Webiga Yangtze ayaa lagu soo warramey 20020 yuan/ton, iyada oo maalin kasta uu kordhay 70 yuan; Qandaraaska ugu weyn ee Shanghai Aluminium, 2506, wuxuu ku xiray 19930 yuan/ton. In kasta oo ay si cidhiidhi ah isu beddeshay fadhigii habeenkii, haddana waxay haysatay heerka taageerada muhiimka ah ee 19900 yuan maalintii. Isbeddelkan kor u kaca ah waxaa ka dambeeya dhawaaqa u dhexeeya alaabada tooska ah ee caalamiga ah oo hoos ugu dhacaysa hoos u dhaca taariikhiga ah iyo xoojinta ciyaaraha siyaasadda:
Qalabka aluminium ee LME ayaa hoos ugu dhacay 417575 tan, iyada oo wax ka yar hal toddobaad oo maalmo la heli karo, iyo kharashka tamarta sare ee Yurub (iyadoo qiimaha gaaska dabiiciga ah uu dib u soo celinayo 35 euro / megawatts) ayaa xakameynaya horumarka dib u soo celinta wax soo saarka.
Alaabada bulshada ee Shanghai Aluminium ayaa hoos u dhacday 6.23% ilaa 178597 tan todobaadkii. Sababo la xiriira sii daynta xoogga leh ee qalabka guriga iyo dalabaadka baabuurta ee gobolka koonfurta, lacagta goobta ayaa dhaaftay 200 yuan/ton, bakhaarka Foshanna waxa uu ahaa in uu saf u galo in ka badan 3 maalmood si uu alaabta u soo qaado.
Ⅰ Macquul Wadista: Demand Adkeysiga vs. Qiimaha Burburka
1. Baahida tamarta cusub ayaa hogaaminaysa, qaybaha dhaqankana waxay la kulmaan soo kabasho yar
Saamaynta kama dambaysta ah ee degdegga ah ee lagu rakibo sawir-qaadista: Bishii Abriil, wax-soo-saarka qaybaha sawir-qaadista ayaa kordhay 17% bishii, iyo baahida loo qabo aluminiumka aluminiumku waxay kor u kacday 22% sannadkiiba. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, marka ay noodhka siyaasadu soo dhawaado bisha Maajo, shirkadaha qaar ayaa horay u sii gudbiyay amarada.
Dardargelinta fududaynta baabuurta: Qadarka aluminium ee loo isticmaalo baabuurta tamarta cusub ee baabuurkiiba waxa ay dhaaftay 350 kiiloogaraam, taas oo ku kaxaysa heerka shaqaynta saxan aluminium, xariijin iyo ganacsiyo bireed ilaa 82%. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, bishii Abriil, heerka kobaca iibka baabuurta ayaa hoos u dhacay ilaa 12%, iyo saamaynta korodhka ganacsiga ee siyaasadda ayaa daciifay.
Khadka hoose ee amarada korantada: Gobolka Grid's dufcaddii labaad ee korantada ultra-sare ee agabka aluminiumku waa 143000 tan, iyo shirkadaha fiilooyinka aluminiumku waxay ku shaqeeyaan awood buuxda, taageeraya wax soo saarka tiirka aluminiumka si ay u ilaaliyaan shan sano oo sare.
2. Dhinaca kharashka, waxaa jira laba daran: baraf iyo dab
Cadaadiska aluminiumka xad-dhaafka ah ayaa cad: dib-u-soo-celinta wax-soo-saarka macdanta Shanxi ayaa dib u riixday qiimaha bauxite ilaa $ 80 / ton, qiimaha dhibcaha alumina ayaa hoos uga dhacay 2900 yuan / ton, qiimaha aluminium electrolytic ayaa hoos u dhacay 16500 yuan / ton, iyo celceliska faa'iidada warshadaha ayaa kordhay ilaa 3700 yuan.
Qiimaha aluminiumka cagaaran ee cagaaran: Qiimaha Yunnan hydropower aluminium ton waa 2000 yuan ka hooseeya tamarta kulaylka, iyo faa'iidada guud ee ganacsiyada sida Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. ayaa ka sarreeya celceliska warshadaha boqolkiiba 5 dhibcood, dardargelinta nadiifinta awoodda wax soo saarka kuleylka.
Ⅱ Ciyaarta Macro: Siyaasadda 'sayf laba af leh' oo kala jeexjeexaysa filashooyinka suuqa
1. Siyaasadaha kobaca xasiloonida gudaha ee ka soo horjeeda khataraha baahida dibadda
Dhismaha dhexe ee mashaariicda kaabayaasha: Komishanka Horumarinta iyo Dib-u-habaynta Qaranka ayaa qorsheynaya inay soo saaraan liiska mashaariicda "dual" sanadka oo dhan ka hor dhammaadka Juun, kaas oo la filayo in uu kordho kororka 500000 tan ee isticmaalka aluminium.
Rajada laga qabo siyaasadda lacageed ee dabacsan: Bangiga dhexe ayaa ku dhawaaqay " dhimista waqtigeeda ee saamiga kaydka shuruudaha kaydka iyo heerka dulsaarka ", iyo rajada dareeraha dabacsan ayaa kiciyay qulqulka lacagaha ee suuqa badeecadaha.
2. Swan madow ee dibada 'khatarta kororka
Siyaasadaha canshuuraha ee Mareykanka ee soo noqnoqda: ku soo rogida canshuur 70% ahalaabta aluminiumka Shiinaha si loo xakameeyo dhoofinta tooska ah, si aan toos ahayn u saameeya silsiladaha warshadaha sida qalabka guriga iyo qaybaha baabuurta. Qiyaasaha la sameeyay waxay muujinayaan in soo-gaadhista aluminium ee Maraykanka ay tahay 2.3%.
Baahida daciifka ah ee Yurub: Tirada diiwaangelinta baabuurta cusub ee Midowga Yurub rubuci hore ayaa hoos u dhacay 1.9% sanadka-sannadka, iyo kororka wax soo saarka Trimet ee Jarmalka ayaa xayiray booska dib u celinta aluminium London. Sarrifka Shanghai London ayaa kor u kacay 8.3, khasaaraha soo dejinta ayaa kor u dhaafay 1000 yuan/ton.
Ⅲ Dagaalka maaliyadda: kala duwanaanshaha xoogga weyn ayaa sii xoogeysanaya, wareegtada waaxdu waa ay dedejisaa
Dagaal gaaban oo gaaban oo suuqa mustaqbalka ah: Haysashada qandaraaska ugu weyn ee Shanghai Aluminium ayaa hoos u dhacday 10393 badan maalintii, Yong'an Futures' boosaska dheer ayaa hoos u dhacay 12000, boosaska gaaban ee Guotai Jun'an ayaa kordhay 1800, iyo khatarta khatarta ah ee khatarta ah ee lacagaha ayaa kululaaday.
Suuqa saamiyada wuxuu leeyahay kala duwanaansho cad: qaybta fikradda aluminiumka ayaa kor u kacday 1.05% hal maalin gudaheed, laakiin Shiinaha Aluminium Industry ayaa hoos u dhacay 0.93%, halka Nanshan Aluminum Industry uu kor u kacay 5.76% oo ka soo horjeeda isbeddelka, iyada oo lacagaha lagu ururiyey aluminium tamarta tamarta iyo hoggaamiyeyaasha wax-qabadka sare.
Ⅳ Muuqaalka mustaqbalka: Suuqa garaaca oo hoos yimaada dheelitirnaanta adag
Muddo gaaban (1-2 bilood)
Isbeddelka qiimaha xoogga leh: Taageerada alaabada hoose iyo baahida dib u buuxinta fasaxyada, Shanghai Aluminum ayaa laga yaabaa inay tijaabiso heerka cadaadiska 20300 yuan, laakiin taxaddar waa in lagu sameeyaa dib u soo celinta doolarka Maraykanka oo ay sababtay dib u dhigista dulsaarka dulsaarka Federaalka.
Digniinta khatarta ah: Isbeddelka lama filaanka ah ee siyaasadda dhoofinta bauxite ee Indonesia iyo dhibaatada gaarsiinta ee ay sababtay cunaqabataynta aluminium ee Ruushka waxay kicin kartaa khatarta bakhaarrada qasabka ah.
Dhexdhexaad ilaa wakhti dheer (qaybta labaad ee 2025)
Caadiyan isku dheeli tirnaanta cidhiidhiga ah: Korodhka wax-soo-saarka aluminium elektrolytka ah ee caalamiga ah waxa uu ka yar yahay 1 milyan oo tan sannadkii, iyo baahida tamarta cusubi waxa ay sii kordhaysaa 800000 tan sannadkii, taas oo adkeynaysa in la xakameeyo farqiga.
Dib-u-dhiska qiimaha silsiladda warshadaha: Heerka ka faa'iidaysiga ee aluminium dib loo warshadeeyay ayaa dhaaftay 85%, iyo tignoolajiyada isku-dhafan ee dhimista ayaa horseeday faa'iidada guud ee farsamaynta ilaa 20%. Shirkadaha leh caqabadaha tignoolajiyada ayaa hogaamin doona wareega xiga ee koritaanka.
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Waqtiga boostada: May-06-2025