1. Diirada-saarista Dhacdada: Maraykanku waxa uu qorsheynayaa in uu si ku meel gaar ah uga dhaafo tacriifadaha baabuurta, silsiladda saadka shirkadaha baabuurtana waa la joojin doonaa.
Dhawaan, madaxwaynihii hore ee Maraykanka Trump ayaa si cad u sheegay in uu ka fikirayo hirgalinta cashuur dhaafka wakhtiga gaaban ee baabuurta iyo qaybo ka mid ah si loogu ogolaado shirkadaha fuushanka bilaashka ah in ay ku hagaajiyaan silsiladahooda sahayda wax soo saarka gudaha ee Maraykanka. In kasta oo baaxadda iyo muddada ka-dhaafitaanku aanay caddayn, bayaankan ayaa si dhakhso ah u kiciyay rajada suuqa ee fududaynta cadaadiska qiimaha silsiladda warshadaha baabuurta ee caalamiga ah.
Kordhinta asalka
"De Sinicization" ee shirkadaha baabuurta ayaa la kulmaya caqabado: 2024, qadarka qaybaha aluminium ee ay soo dejiyaan shirkadaha baabuurta Maraykanka ee Shiinaha ayaa hoos u dhacay 18% sannadkiiba, laakiin saamiga dhoofinta Kanada iyo Mexico ee Maraykanka ayaa kor u kacay 45%. Shirkadaha baabuurtu waxay weli ku tiirsan yihiin silsiladda saadka ee Waqooyiga Ameerika muddada gaaban.
Qaybta muhiimka ah ee isticmaalka aluminium: Warshadaha wax soo saarka baabuurta ayaa xisaabiya 25% -30% baahida aluminium ee caalamiga ah, iyada oo isticmaalka sanadlaha ah ee ku dhawaad 4.5 milyan oo tan ee suuqyada Maraykanka. Ka-dhaafitaanka tacriifadaha waxay kicin kartaa dib-u-celinta muddada-gaaban ee baahida alaabta aluminium ee dibedda laga keeno.
2. Saamaynta Suuqa: Kordhinta Dalabka Muddada Gaaban vs. Ciyaarta Deegaanaynta Muddada Dheer
Faa'iidooyinka muddada gaaban: Ka-dhaafitaannada tacriifadu waxay kiciyaan rajooyinka 'qabsashada soo dejinta'
Haddii Maraykanku uu fuliyo canshuur dhaaf 6-12 bilood ah qaybaha baabuurta laga keeno Kanada iyo Mexico, shirkadaha baabuurtu waxay dardargelin karaan kaydinta si loo yareeyo khatarta mustaqbalka. Waxaa lagu qiyaasaa in warshadaha baabuurta ee Maraykanku ay u baahan yihiin inay soo dejiyaan qiyaastii 120000 tan oo aluminium ah (dalalka jidhka, qaybaha dhimanaya, iwm.) bishiiba, iyo muddada ka-dhaafitaanka ayaa laga yaabaa inay kordhiso baahida aluminium ee caalamiga ah ee 300000 ilaa 500000 tan sannadkii. Qiimaha aluminium ee LME ayaa dib u soo laabtay jawaab celin ahaan, kor u kacay 1.5% ilaa $2520 tan bishii Abriil 14-keedii.
Neefta muddada dheer: Wax soo saarka maxaliga ah ayaa xakameynaya baahida aluminium ee dibadda
Kordhinta awoodda wax-soo-saarka aluminium ee dib-loo-warshaday ee Mareykanka: Marka la gaaro 2025, awoodda wax-soo-saarka aluminium ee dib-loo-warshaday ee Mareykanka ayaa la filayaa inay dhaafto 6 milyan oo tan sanadkii. Siyaasadda "meelaynta" ee shirkadaha baabuurta ayaa mudnaanta siin doona iibsashada aluminium kaarboon-yar, taas oo xakamaynaysa baahida aluminium aasaasiga ah ee dibedda laga keeno.
Doorka "goobta gaadiidka" ee Mexico waa la daciifiyay: Tesla's Mexico Gigafactory wax soo saarka ayaa dib loo dhigay ilaa 2026, iyo ka-dhaafitaannada muddada-gaaban uma badna inay beddelaan isbeddelka soo celinta silsiladda sahayda muddada-dheer ee shirkadaha baabuurta.
3. Isku xirka warshadaha: garqaadka siyaasada iyo dib u habeynta ganacsiga aluminium ee caalamiga ah
Ciyaarta dhoofinta 'muddada daaqada' Shiinaha
Dhoofinta alaabta alluminium ee warshadaysan ayaa kor u kacday: saxanka aluminiumka baabuurta ee Shiinaha iyo dhoofinta xariijimaha ayaa kordhay 32% sannadkiiba bishii Maarso. Haddii Maraykanku ka dhaafo canshuuraha, ka baaraandegidda ganacsiga ee gobolka Yangtze River Delta (sida Chalco iyo Aasiya Baasifigga Tignoolajiyada) waxaa laga yaabaa inay la kulmaan amarro badan.
Ganacsiga dib u dhoofinta ayaa kor u kacaya: mugga dhoofinta aluminiumka wax-soo-saarka nus-dhameed ee ka yimid waddamada Koonfur-bari Aasiya sida Malaysia iyo Vietnam ee Maraykanka ayaa laga yaabaa inay kordho iyada oo loo marayo kanaalkan, ka fogaanshaha xayiraadaha asalka ah.
Shirkadaha aluminium ee Yurub ayaa cadaadis kala kulmaya labada dhinac
Khasaaraha kharashka ayaa la muujiyay: qiimaha dhamaystiran ee aluminium electrolytic ee Yurub ayaa weli ka sarreeya $ 2500 / ton, iyo haddii dalabka Maraykanku u wareego wax soo saarka gudaha, dhirta aluminium ee Yurub ayaa lagu qasbi karaa inay yareeyaan wax soo saarka (sida dhirta Jarmalka ee Heidelberg).
Casriyeynta xannibaadaha cagaaran: Canshuurta xudduudaha kaarboon ee EU (CBAM) waxay dabooshaa warshadaha aluminiumka, xoojinta tartanka heerarka "aluminium-kaarboon-yar" ee Maraykanka iyo Yurub.
Raasamaal badan ayaa sharadka 'siyaasad isbeddelaysa'
Marka loo eego xogta xulashada aluminium ee CME, Abriil 14-keedii, haynta fursadaha wicitaanku waxay kor u kacday 25%, iyo qiimaha aluminiumku wuxuu dhaafay 2600 US dollars per ton ka dib markii laga dhaafo; Laakiin Goldman Sachs ayaa ka digaya in haddii muddada ka-dhaafitaanku ay ka gaaban tahay 6 bilood, qiimaha aluminiumku wuxuu ka tanaasuli karaa faa'iidooyinkooda.
4. Saadaasha Isbeddelka Qiimaha Aluminiumka: Siyaasadda garaaca iyo isku dhaca aasaasiga ah
Muddo gaaban (1-3 bilood)
Kor u kaca: Ka-dhaafitaanka filashooyinka waxay kicisaa baahida buuxinta, oo ay weheliso alaabada LME oo hoos uga dhacday 400000 tan (398000 tan oo la soo sheegay Abriil 13-keedii), qiimaha aluminiumku wuxuu tijaabin karaa inta u dhaxaysa 2550-2600 US dollars/ton.
Khatarta hoose: Haddii tafaasiisha ka-dhaafitaanku aanay ahayn sidii la filayey (sida ku kooban dhammaan baabuurka iyo qaybaha laga reebo), qiimayaasha aluminiumku waxa laga yaabaa inay dib ugu noqdaan heerka taageerada ee $2450/ton.
Muddada dhexe (6-12 bilood)
Kala soocida baahida: Siideynta awoodda wax soo saarka aluminium dib loo warshadeeyay ee gudaha Mareykanka ayaa joojisay soo dejinta, laakiin dhoofinta Shiinahabaabuurta tamarta cusub(oo leh korodhka baahida sanadlaha ah ee 800000 tan) iyo mashaariicda kaabayaasha ee Koonfur-bari Aasiya oo ka soo horjeeda saameynta xun.
Xarunta Qiimaha: Qiimaha aluminium ee LME waxa laga yaabaa inay ilaaliso isbedbedel balaadhan oo ah 2300-2600 US dollars/ton, oo ay la socoto korodhka heerka qaska siyaasadda.
Waqtiga boostada: Abriil-15-2025